Today, is indeed a historic day in the world polity. Kim and Trump meet. I never thought this would happen a few days back. Especially two crazy people at two ends of world taking the game to a next level with war of words.
With Trump deciding foreign policy with few 3 am tweets to Kim openly threatening with nuclear button on the his table, it has been interesting to watch. But I give full credit to Kim in this entire episode.
Hats off Kim:
How many of us thought that 33 year old could take on mighty world power. And from day one he actually controlled the game of escalation.
- Whenever he wanted he escalated the missile tests and tensions, and whenever he wanted he toned down, like the number and size of the tests went only from one level to next.
- He made the Chinese and Russians come to game, based on his desired time. Be it THAAD thing with Russia or sanctions from US..
- He in-directly sent a strong message to Chinese that Kim is not a puppet of China
- He actually put questions on US – Japan and US- South Korea relations. Hats off dude.
- The timing of talks with south, and his winter Olympics things was amazing.
Today when he meets Trump, he is meeting as an equal to US and not a bit less or small country. Hats off dude.. u pulled off this well. Only hope that your focus also turns to the common poor people in North.
And coming to talks, there is lot of talk about de-nuclearization. The entire world wants this, blah blah blah. But I seriously feel that de-nuclearization should not happen. Here are my reasons
- Nuclear North and missiled north would put pressure on neighboring Japan and South Korea to spend more on military and be prepared for the Norths threat. This is evident in the fact that- Japan’s economy has shown positive growth and faster growth in last few months, especially with greater push from defense industry. With Abe being at helm, and with good numbers in Parliament – National Diet, he would surely change the constitution to make Japan, work more on military. The signs are all visible. If this happens this will put pressure on China. It will open a new front against China and reduce the pressure of China on India alone. Two sided pressure from India and Japan can better deal China’s aggression. The real challenge for India is China’s aggression and denuclearization doesn’t help us, India, in countering Chinese.
- If the de-nuclearization happens, the problem is resolved and there is little need for US presence in this region. The South might also doesn’t need US presence. (If Kim agrees for de-nuclearizaiton, he would definitely ask US to leave the Korean Peninsula). Which leaves the entire region in a power vacuum and no guesses, Chinese will jump to grab that. This is not good for India. We don’t want Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pccific.
- The nuclear North will put pressure on South to go to US for protection. US presence with its naval fleet and also like installation of THAAD missiles will surely put pressure on China, again reduces some pressure of China on India alone.
- The nuclear North will keep questioning the US friendship with Japan and Korea. And these allies have by now understood that US cannot be with them for all times. especially when their own security is under threat. This leaves for countries like Japan, Korea, Australia and ASEAN look for new friends, and no doubt India comes at top of that list. Good for us.
- De-nuclearization would reduce sanctions on Chinese support to North, so North will be more in Chinese hands, they use this as buffer state. This all helps Chinese domination of Indo-Pacific.
- We should keep reminding the world how the North has got the technology to develop the missiles. We should make the world realize that it is Pakistan and China which actively supported the nuclear program of North and so need to isolate them and keep questioning their credibility. Nuclear North would give us platform to expose double game of China and Pakistan
- And actually stopping North doesn’t solve the problem of nuclear weapons. May be this give onus to countries to put pressure of world powers to give up their nuclear technology.
- China has smartly played double game, of helping the US in pressurizing the North while it getting immunity or diluting the South China Sea issue. We should keep targeting the China through more US pressure.
- To be frank, Nuclear technology is not a big deal today. Any physics university student with basics in nuclear field can calculate the critical mass and plan the technology. So blaming North as evil for nuclear will not solve any problem. It is like addressing wrong problem.
To my understanding, de-nuclearization doesn’t serve any Indian interests. And so, I don’t feel that we should support that, or rather we should be silent and let things take their course. The only sad part in this entire episode is the people of North Korea, they got a raw deal. No body actually cared them.
The above points make me believe that de-nuclearization is not needed and I don’t want that to happen. ( This is all my personal opinion and understanding of world polity and power).